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China's auto industry from the growth period into maturity (2010-2022 sales compound growth rate of 3%), facing three major features, five major changes. The three characteristics are: 1, the total dividend gradually faded, the normalization of low growth rate of automobile sales; 2, the old and new capacity switching, vehicle pattern changes; 3, electric intelligent change (new technology accelerated on board, domestic vehicles and parts and components are facing huge investment opportunities. The five major changes correspond to product attributes, production processes, electronic and electrical (EE) architecture, cost structure, business model changes.

Against this backdrop, the next 3 major growth points in the automotive industry will emerge:

Growth Point I:

Passenger car exports the world's first, parts and components actively build factories overseas. China's vehicle exports continued to break through, 2023 January-October China's passenger car exports totaled 3.6 million units, +73% year-on-year, the world's first. Domestic car enterprises SAIC, Chery, Geely, etc. with a complete supporting system; BYD, Azure, Xiaopeng, etc. combined with the local car situation including direct, authorization, leasing, subscription and other systems, quickly open the overseas market, is expected to export sales next year is expected to reach 6 million units, +24% year-on-year. At the same time, parts and components overseas growth, domestic auto parts to undertake the global automotive industry for decades, the production process and cost control capabilities are excellent, in recent years, gradually follow the customer for localized supply (North America, Mexico, Europe, Southeast Asia, etc.), is expected to open up new incremental market.

 Picture source: web

Overseas is expected to become an important sectoral opportunity for the automotive industry chain. Automotive electrification, intelligence is a global trend, the current overseas process as a whole slower than the domestic, and product cost-effective significantly weaker than domestic. The international competitiveness of Chinese auto parts enterprises is mainly reflected in technological innovation and cost control. In the field of lightweight technology, for example, Chinese enterprises have been able to provide products comparable to the international advanced level through continuous technological R&D and innovation. For example, certain Chinese enterprises have mastered the large-scale high vacuum die-casting process, the application of this technology can not only improve production efficiency, but also significantly reduce production costs. In addition, Chinese enterprises in overseas market layout also provides more market opportunities. According to incomplete statistics, there have been more than 20 Chinese parts manufacturers in Mexico to establish a production base to better serve the North American market.

Growth Point II:

Intelligent driving singularity moment will arrive. Intelligent driving is one of the important application scenarios of artificial intelligence, with a large user base and 1.4 billion cars in the world, with a broad market space. 2024 technology (Tesla FSD end-to-end V12 version) + policy (L3 pilot to promote) + explosive products (Huawei, Xiaomi, the new forces, etc.) continued to catalyze the sales penetration of urban high-level intelligent driving models with L3 capability is expected to break through the single-month 5%, the intelligent industry has entered a moment of acceleration. 5%, the intelligent industry has entered the accelerating moment, optimistic about the intelligent driving perception layer - decision-making layer - execution layer incremental parts investment opportunities.

 Picture source: web

"Intelligent" is the main theme of the new era of automobile. We are gradually saying goodbye to the age of range anxiety and ushering in a new era of intelligent mobility. Whether it's Tesla's announcement that it's ready to introduce the FSD intelligent driving system into China, or today's almost standardized intelligent cockpit, LIDAR, assisted driving, and high-speed NDA, almost instantly, intelligent driving has become a "must contend" among automobile manufacturers. From the penetration rate data to high-speed automatic assisted driving technology represented by intelligent driving technology in this year's penetration rate has jumped. But despite this, intelligent cockpit, intelligent driving, adjustable suspension and other cutting-edge technology penetration rate is still at a low level, looking ahead not only potential space is huge, once the technology enters the popularization stage, the penetration rate will be rapidly increased for the industry chain to bring rare opportunities for development.

Growth Point III:

Robots and vehicle-side supply chain high degree of overlap, 2024 is expected to become the first year of mass production. Humanoid robots and intelligent driving cars can be essentially divided into perception - decision-making - implementation of three levels, vehicle-side components (motors, electronic control, gearboxes, roller screws, software, sensors, bearings, etc.) and robots with a high degree of overlap, the more vehicle-side Know how can be used along the field of robotics; Tesla released the second generation of humanoid robots to accelerate the progress of the industry, subsequent to the big manufacturers to lead the way (Tesla, Xiaomi, (Tesla, millet, Peng, etc.) + technology iteration (FSD, AI model catalyst) + policy care triple catalyst, humanoid robot development is expected to continue to speed up, 2024 is expected to become the first year of mass production, bringing related industry chain link investment opportunities.

Article from "qpzone.com.cn"

2024 China (Taizhou) Int'lAUTO PARTS &SERVICE SUPPLIESExpo will be held in 2024.9.19-22,Taizhou International Expo Center(558 Xinhai Road, Jiaojiang District, Taizhou)

 Three new energy pure tram technology supply chain display, three traditional auto parts product display NIO, Geely, GAC and other dozens of automakers participated.